James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Race

Multiple recent polls show Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate contest. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University reported Talarico at 47% to Paxton’s 45% among likely voters, while a Fox News poll put him ahead 51%‑48% and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey showed a 45%‑40% advantage. The RealClearPolitics average also favors Talarico by one point. Talarico leads among Black voters (79% to 12%), Hispanic voters (57%‑38%), and independents, while Paxton underperforms with white voters and faces a 57% unfavorable rating versus 47% for Talarico.

Paxton, who was impeached by fellow Republicans and faces fraud and obstruction allegations, has also been accused of voter‑fraud violations for using an address where he does not reside. Talarico was similarly scrutinized after a ProPublica‑Texas Tribune investigation revealed he voted using his parents’ address for several years before updating his registration. Both candidates have traded accusations of voter‑fraud misconduct.

The race has drawn national attention, with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton questioned after the polling setbacks. Republican commentator Sean Hannity dismissed his own network’s poll showing Talarico ahead, calling the results unbelievable. Talarico’s campaign emphasizes broader issues such as immigration enforcement, transgender rights, and criticism of ICE, while Paxton’s record on corruption and personal controversies continues to dominate coverage.