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Texas Senate race: Talarico and Paxton enter highly competitive contest
The Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has become increasingly competitive, with recent polling and prediction markets showing Talarico with a slight edge. Multiple polls, including those from NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo, ReconMR, and Emerson College, indicate Talarico leading, while prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket place his win probability around 60%. Consequently, Fox News has shifted its forecast for the race from 'Lean Republican' to 'Toss-Up'.
The campaign has been marked by intense attacks and controversy. Ken Paxton has released provocative advertisements targeting Talarico's past comments regarding drag queens. Meanwhile, Talarico faces scrutiny over his 2022 legislative remarks concerning sex education and his past statements on transgender issues. Additionally, a hidden camera recording reportedly captured Babs Miller, a spiritual leader for Talarico, suggesting the candidate might change his stances on transgender politics if elected.
Paxton's campaign has also faced personal scrutiny, including past impeachment proceedings and a recent social media gaffe where he misidentified the Texas city of Cypress as 'Cyprus'.
Entities
Alyssa Edwards · Babs Miller · James Talarico · Kalshi · Ken Paxton · Ted Cruz · Texas
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The prediction market Kalshi gives Talarico a 59% chance of winning the election. freerepublic.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Babs Miller, a spiritual leader for Talarico, was recorded stating he would change his positions on transgender issues if elected. americanfaith.com · thefederalist.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Ken Paxton released a campaign ad targeting Talarico's comments regarding a drag queen. opslens.com · www.wnd.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] An Emerson College poll showed Talarico leading Paxton by 1 point, 47% to 46%. www.ibtimes.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Polymarket predicts a 60% chance of victory for Talarico and 41% for Paxton. freerepublic.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] A poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 46% to 43% in the Texas Senate race, within a 4-point margin of error. www.ibtimes.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] A ReconMR poll placed Talarico ahead of Paxton by 6 points, with 49% to 43%. www.ibtimes.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Fox News Power Rankings shifted the race from 'Lean Republican' to 'Toss-Up'. freerepublic.com