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James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton by 5 Points in Texas Senate Race Poll
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,048 likely voters conducted July 15‑17 shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, the Democratic candidate’s widest lead in any public poll during the general‑election period. The poll, with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points, finds Talarico leading among voters without a college degree and commanding a strong advantage over independents, while 53% of respondents said they voted for Donald Trump in 2024 and 42% for Kamala Harris.
Fundraising reports indicate Talarico has raised roughly $28 million in the second quarter, far outpacing Paxton’s $1.6 million. The Paxton campaign has signaled it will participate in televised debates, with three events slated for September 22 in the Rio Grande Valley, October 6 in Dallas, and October 13 in Austin. Republican donors face a steep cost environment, with analysts estimating the race may require about $15 million per week in super‑PAC advertising to remain competitive.
The race has drawn intense scrutiny, including allegations that Talarico used his mother’s home to satisfy Texas residency requirements for a prior House campaign, a claim that could constitute a violation of state election law. The contest is widely viewed as one of the most closely watched and expensive Senate races of the 2026 midterms, with the Cook Political Report rating it as “Lean Republican.”
Entities
Cook Political Report · James Talarico · Ken Paxton · Luke Warford · Texas · Texas Public Opinion Research · Texas Senate race
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 5 SOURCES] Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed 1,048 likely voters between July 15 and July 17 with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. www.world-today-journal.com · sanangelolive.com · texasstandard.org · www.sacurrent.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Talarico leads among voters without a college degree. sanangelolive.com · texasstandard.org · www.sacurrent.com
- [● 5 SOURCES] The poll shows James Talarico at 45% support and Ken Paxton at 40% support. www.world-today-journal.com · sanangelolive.com · texasstandard.org · www.sacurrent.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. sanangelolive.com · texasstandard.org · www.sacurrent.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] A previous TPOR poll after the May runoff showed Talarico leading 47% to 44% over Paxton. sanangelolive.com · texasstandard.org · www.sacurrent.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Talarico leads among independent voters, with less than a quarter of independents planning to vote for Paxton. sanangelolive.com · texasstandard.org · www.sacurrent.com
- [DISPUTED] The Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate race as 'Lean Republican.' sanangelolive.com · texasstandard.org · www.sacurrent.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] 53% of poll respondents said they voted for Donald Trump in 2024 and 42% said they voted for Kamala Harris. sanangelolive.com · texasstandard.org · www.sacurrent.com
- [DISPUTED] James Talarico raised about $28 million in the second quarter, while Ken Paxton raised about $1.6 million. politicaldog101.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Republican donors estimate the Texas Senate race may require roughly $15 million per week in super‑PAC advertising to stay competitive.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Ken Paxton’s campaign confirmed it will debate James Talarico, with three debates scheduled for September 22 in the Rio Grande Valley, October 6 in Dallas, and October 13 in Austin. www.gilmermirror.com