James Talarico Leads Texas Senate Race Poll Over Ken Paxton
A new poll by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) surveyed 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15‑17, with a margin of error of ±3.4 points. The poll shows Democrat state Rep. James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, marking the Democrat’s largest lead in any general‑election poll to date.
Talarico leads among voters without a college degree and among independents, with less than a quarter of independents indicating they would vote for Paxton. Among respondents, 53% said they voted for Donald Trump in 2024 and 42% for Kamala Harris, making the sample slightly more Democratic‑leaning than the statewide electorate.
The race is one of the most closely watched and expensive Senate contests in the 2026 midterms. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but they cite Trump’s waning approval, Paxton’s ethical controversies and Talarico’s fundraising advantage (a three‑fold lead in the second quarter) as factors that could flip the seat. The Cook Political Report rates the contest as "Lean Republican."
Entities: Cook Political Report · James Talarico · Ken Paxton · Texas · Texas Public Opinion Research
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 5 SOURCES] Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed 1,048 likely voters between July 15 and July 17 with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. (TPOR poll methodology)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Talarico leads among voters without a college degree. (TPOR poll analysis)
- [● 5 SOURCES] The poll shows James Talarico at 45% support and Ken Paxton at 40% support. (TPOR poll results)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. (Historical election record)
- [● 4 SOURCES] A previous TPOR poll after the May runoff showed Talarico leading 47% to 44% over Paxton. (Earlier TPOR poll)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Talarico leads among independent voters, with less than a quarter of independents planning to vote for Paxton. (TPOR poll analysis)
- [● 4 SOURCES] The Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate race as 'Lean Republican.' (Cook Political Report rating)
- [● 4 SOURCES] 53% of poll respondents said they voted for Donald Trump in 2024 and 42% said they voted for Kamala Harris. (TPOR poll respondent demographics)