Japan increases staple rice planting in 20 prefectures, oversupply risk

A survey by Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries shows that for the 2026 crop year, producers plan to expand the area planted with staple rice in 20 prefectures. The increase follows historic price spikes in 2024‑2025, prompting many farmers to enlarge their rice acreage by about 100,000 hectares, raising total expected output to roughly 735 million tonnes. At the same time, the shift back to staple rice is occurring without a comparable rise in feed‑grain conversion, heightening concerns that supply could outpace demand and push prices lower.

Despite the nationwide expansion, some regions such as Akita Prefecture continue to expect a reduction in staple‑rice planting, with estimates showing a decrease of around 78,600 hectares from the previous year. This mixed outlook underscores regional variations in farmer responses to past price signals and highlights the potential for uneven market impacts across Japan’s rice‑producing areas.