Japan rice inventories projected to reach 2.83 million tons by 2027

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has released projections indicating that private rice inventories in Japan could reach a maximum of 2.83 million tons by the end of June 2027. This estimate, which excludes government rice reserve buybacks, is driven by an upward revision in production forecasts for the 2026 crop, now expected to be between 7.35 million and 7.54 million tons. This level would significantly exceed the record high of 2.43 million tons seen in June 2026 and may lead to further declines in rice prices.

In Iwate Prefecture, the outlook for the 2026 rice harvest is expected to be slightly lower than in 2025. According to the Ministry's crop status report as of August 15, Iwate's yield is projected to be approximately 95% to 98% of the previous year's volume. The Tohoku Regional Agricultural Administration Bureau attributed this assessment to insufficient sunlight and low rainfall between July and August. Nationally, 21 prefectures received a “slightly lower” rating, which may also be a reaction to the high yields recorded in 2025.