Japan rice prices fall amid surplus, threatening farmer income

Rice prices in Japan are experiencing a downward trend, reaching levels not seen in nearly two years. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the retail price for a 5kg bag dropped to approximately 3,156 yen in mid-August, down from 4,416 yen in January.

This decline is driven by a significant surplus of older rice stocks. In response to the market imbalance, the government has announced plans to repurchase 210,000 tons of 2025-crop rice in September to stabilize the market. Retailers are also adjusting strategies, such as matching the prices of new and old rice to prevent older stocks from becoming unsellable.

However, the price drop poses a severe threat to farmers' livelihoods. In Tochigi Prefecture, JA Zen-Noh Tochigi has set advance payments for 2026-crop Koshihikari rice at 15,500 yen per 60kg, a 45% decrease from the previous year. With production costs for fertilizer, fuel, and labor rising, these payments fall well below the estimated production cost of 20,535 yen per 60kg, risking significant financial losses for producers.