Japan rice market shifts from severe shortage to record surplus

Japan's rice market has experienced an unprecedented shift from severe scarcity to a record surplus within just two years. In 2023, extreme heat and drought damaged crops during critical growth stages, reducing the volume of premium-grade rice. This supply shortage, coupled with increased tourism and panic buying following earthquake alerts, caused private stocks to drop from 2 million to 1.5 million tons. Consequently, the price for a 5kg bag surged from approximately ¥2,000 in early 2024 to a peak of ¥4,300 in 2025, prompting the government to release strategic emergency reserves for the first time since 1995.

However, the high prices incentivized farmers to expand production, leading to a rapid market reversal. By mid-2026, private rice inventories rose to 2.43 million tons, exceeding pre-crisis levels. The Japanese Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that this surplus will continue to grow through 2027. To stabilize the market and prevent further price collapses, the government has had to intervene by withdrawing portions of the production from circulation.