Japan rice market and production instability

Japan’s rice industry has experienced an unprecedented shift from severe scarcity to a record surplus within two years. Following a period of shortage in 2023—driven by extreme heat, drought, increased tourism, and panic buying following earthquake alerts—private inventories dropped to 1.5 million tons. This necessitated the first government release of emergency reserves since 1995. During this period, the price for a 5kg bag surged from approximately ¥2,000 in early 2024 to a peak of ¥4,300 in 2025.

By mid-2026, high prices had incentivized expanded production, causing inventories to rise to 2.43 million tons, exceeding pre-crisis levels. The Japanese Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that this surplus will continue to grow through 2027. To stabilize the market and prevent price collapses, the government has intervened by withdrawing portions of production from circulation.

Amidst these market fluctuations, individual farmers face additional pressures. In regions such as the Kii Peninsula, growers struggle with wildlife damage from deer, monkeys, boars, and bears. Simultaneously, in areas like Niigata Prefecture, the rising costs of fertilizer, fuel, and pesticides, combined with unpredictable market prices, threaten the economic viability of rice cultivation.