Japan to buy back rice reserves as new crop prices drop below old stock

Japan is experiencing a significant shift in its rice market following the period of high prices known as the ‘Reiwa Rice Shortage.’ Currently, a price inversion is occurring where newly harvested rice is selling for less than older stock. For example, in some locations, 5kg of new rice is priced between 2,700 and 2,900 yen, while 2025 stock remains at approximately 3,200 yen.

This phenomenon is driven by a surplus of supply. Following the previous shortage, the government released stockpiled rice to stabilize the market, and a bountiful harvest in 2025 has led to an accumulation of inventory. While consumers benefit from prices dropping—with average 5kg prices falling from 4,416 yen in early 2026 to 3,112 yen—farmers and distributors face financial strain and potential deficits due to the rapid price decline.

To mitigate the impact on producers and stabilize the market, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has announced plans to buy back government rice reserves. The government intends to repurchase 210,000 tons of the 590,000 tons released previously to support prices. Experts suggest that long-term agricultural policy should focus on increasing productivity and expanding exports to meet global demand rather than relying solely on domestic supply adjustments.