Japan's Summer Outbound Travel Falls Nearly 9% as Yen Weakens and Costs Rise

Japan's outbound tourism for the summer of 2026 is forecast to reach about 2.17 million trips, an 8.8% decline from the same period last year – the first yearly drop since travel rebounded after the Covid‑19 pandemic in 2023. The downturn is attributed to a weakened yen and rising travel expenses, including higher airline fuel surcharges linked to Middle‑East tensions. Longer trips to North America and Australia have become less appealing, while domestic travel is also expected to shrink by 4.4% to roughly 69 million outings.

Despite fewer trips, average spending per outbound journey is projected to increase by 6.3% to 323,000 yen (about US$2,000). Travelers are favoring nearer, more affordable destinations, with South Korea accounting for 26.2% of outbound trips and Taiwan 16.2%. Visits to China are expected to halve, representing only 10.1% of outbound travel, reflecting ongoing diplomatic frictions.

The projections are based on an online survey conducted in June 2026 of Japanese residents planning trips of at least one night between 15 July and 31 August.