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Javier Milei faces low re‑election odds as polls show sub‑40% support in Argentina
National polls conducted at the end of July by Zuban Córdoba and CB Global Data project President Javier Milei receiving only 32%‑34% of the vote for the 2027 presidential election, well below the 40% threshold required for a first‑round victory. The same surveys record a 65.3% disapproval rating for Milei’s government and a 61%‑62% negative perception of his performance. About half of respondents say they would never vote for Milei’s re‑election, while 61.9% would prefer a change of government.
Peronist figures remain the main alternative, with Cristina Kirchner and Axel Kicillof each polling around 15% and the combined Peronist share ranging from 31% to 35%. In a hypothetical runoff, Milei would lead Kicillof 43% to 41.6% and would also edge Kirchner. The PRO party is debating its future role, considering a more moderate stance and the possible candidacy of former economy minister Hernán Lacunza.
Overall, the data suggest a highly polarized electorate, a weakened incumbent base, and an uncertain path to re‑election for Milei in the upcoming election cycle.
Entities
Axel Kicillof · Cristina Kirchner · Hernán Lacunza · Javier Milei · PRO · PRO (Propuesta Republicana) · Zuban Córdoba
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The PRO party is debating a more moderate stance and the possible candidacy of Hernán Lacunza for the next election. www.eldia.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Cristina Kirchner and Axel Kicillof each receive about 15% support in the same polls. www.4semanas.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a hypothetical runoff, Milei would lead Kicillof 43% to 41.6%. www.4semanas.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] President Javier Milei is projected to receive 32%‑34% of the vote in the 2027 election according to July polls. www.4semanas.com · www.diagonales.com · forodebaires.com.ar
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Approximately 50% of respondents said they would never vote for Milei’s re‑election. forodebaires.com.ar
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 65.3% of surveyed Argentines disapprove of Milei’s government. www.4semanas.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Peronist parties collectively hold 31%‑35% support, making them the main alternative to Milei. www.4semanas.com · forodebaires.com.ar
- [○ 1 SOURCE] A 40% vote share is required for a first‑round presidential victory in Argentina. www.4semanas.com