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JPMorgan projects 10% annual Bitcoin return in first long-term forecast
JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) report, marking the first time the institution has modeled long-term returns for the cryptocurrency. The report projects a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years, outperforming other major asset classes such as U.S. large-cap equities (7.5%), U.S. REITs (8.2%), and gold (5.5%).
The bank provided three distinct scenarios for Bitcoin: a base case of 10% annual return, a bullish scenario of 16.6%, and a bearish scenario of -11.2%. Despite these high return projections, JPMorgan is not yet including Bitcoin in its main portfolio allocation models or covariance matrices. The firm cited Bitcoin's high annualized volatility, estimated at 55%, and its unstable correlation with other asset classes as primary reasons for its cautious stance.
The modeling is based on three weighted factors: the relationship between Bitcoin supply and global money supply (65%), its role as a complement to gold (30%), and network adoption (5%). While the projected returns are high, analysts noted that the high volatility creates a significant gap between the 10% compound annual return and the 20.9% arithmetic annual return.
Entities
Bitcoin · David Kelly · Gold · JPMorgan Asset Management · JPMorgan Chase · Jamie Dimon · Matt Hougan · Sheena Shah · United States · Wall Street
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] A balanced 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds is expected to return 7% annually in dollars. www.cnbce.com · cryptonomist.ch
- [● 23 SOURCES] Bitcoin's projected return exceeds U.S. large-cap equities, which are forecasted at 7.5%. www.cnbce.com · btcwires.com · www.crypto-insiders.nl · koinbulteni.com · ambcrypto.com · +18 more
- [● 20 SOURCES] JPMorgan Asset Management projects a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10-15 years. www.cnbce.com · www.criptonoticias.com.br · btcwires.com · www.crypto-insiders.nl · koinbulteni.com · +15 more
- [● 20 SOURCES] Bitcoin's annualized volatility is estimated at 55%. www.criptonoticias.com.br · www.crypto-insiders.nl · koinbulteni.com · ambcrypto.com · blockonomi.com · +15 more
- [● 13 SOURCES] JPMorgan has not included Bitcoin in its main covariance matrices for portfolio allocation. blockonomi.com · captainaltcoin.com · investinglive.com · www.criptonoticias.com.br · cryptobriefing.com · +8 more
- [● 5 SOURCES] U.S. REITs are expected to return 8.2% annually. btcwires.com · koinbulteni.com · ambcrypto.com · blockonomi.com · www.borsaningundemi.com
- [● 10 SOURCES] Bitcoin's arithmetic annual return is projected at 20.9%. koinbulteni.com · ambcrypto.com · blockonomi.com · www.borsaningundemi.com · captainaltcoin.com · +5 more
- [● 19 SOURCES] The expected return for gold is 5.5%. www.cnbce.com · btcwires.com · www.crypto-insiders.nl · koinbulteni.com · ambcrypto.com · +14 more
- [● 14 SOURCES] JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 LTCMA report projects a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over 10-15 years. bittimes.net · kryptomagazin.cz · www.criptonoticias.com.br · www.criptovaluta.it · finex.cz · +9 more
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Bitcoin projection is based on three models: supply vs money supply (65%), gold complement (30%), and network adoption (5%). bittimes.net · www.crypto-insiders.nl · crypto-times.jp