JPMorgan projects 10% annual Bitcoin returns in new report

In its 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, J.P. Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin for the first time, providing a 10-year return estimate. The bank projects a base-case compound annual return of approximately 10%, alongside an annualized volatility of 55%. This projection exceeds the report's estimates for U.S. large-cap equities (7.5%) and gold (5.5%).

Despite the positive outlook, the report maintains a cautious stance, labeling Bitcoin a speculative asset and noting it is premature to make definitive 10-year predictions. Consequently, the bank has excluded it from its primary covariance matrices, meaning it is not currently treated as a portfolio diversifier.

In related market activity, Bitcoin's market dominance reached 60% on October 21, the highest level since May 2026. While dominance rose, the price of BTC saw fluctuations, dropping below $82,000 on October 22 after briefly exceeding $84,000. While major altcoins like Ether, XRP, and Solana remained relatively stable, smaller tokens and memecoins experienced declines.