Kalshi dominates prediction market volume as post-World Cup interest declines

Interest in prediction markets and soccer has declined significantly following the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Global search interest for prediction markets has reverted to pre-tournament levels, and combined weekly trading volumes on the industry's two primary platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have fallen below $10 billion for the first time since June.

During the peak of the tournament in June 2026, the market saw massive growth. Kalshi processed $31.5 billion in trading volume, an 87% increase from May, while Polymarket posted $13.3 billion. Together, the platforms handled approximately $44.8 billion in June, nearly doubling their April figures.

Despite the market contraction, Kalshi has established a dominant position among US-approved platforms. Regulated by the CFTC, Kalshi captured approximately 83% of notional trading volume among approved US platforms during June and July. This regulatory oversight has allowed Kalshi to attract institutional and retail participants who avoid unregulated venues, creating a competitive advantage over blockchain-based platforms like Polymarket.