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19 clusters · 80 sources · 68 days · First seen · Last updated
Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position
Overview
Following the 2026 FIFA World Cup, global search interest in prediction markets returned to pre-tournament levels. Combined weekly trading volumes for Kalshi and Polymarket dropped below $10 billion for the first time since June. Despite this, Kalshi has maintained a dominant position among US-approved platforms, capturing approximately 83% of notional trading volume among regulated venues during June and July. To maintain momentum, platforms have utilized promotional incentives. In August 2026, Kalshi offered sign-up bonuses ranging from $25 to $500, while Polymarket offered a welcome bonus where users could trade $10 to receive $20. Competition intensified in September and October with various deposit matches for NFL, MLB, and WNBA matchups. Kalshi has also expanded its infrastructure. In late August 2026, Alpaca announced a partnership to integrate Kalshi event contracts into its global brokerage infrastructure. By October 20, 2026, Kalshi was actively recruiting brokers to connect to its shared event-contract order book via an API from Apex Fintech Solutions. Additionally, crypto wallet provider Phantom began a staged rollout of Kalshi-powered prediction markets for US users, allowing users to trade contracts directly within the Phantom app. This integration is subject to regional restrictions stemming from legal disputes regarding whether certain contracts fall under state gambling laws, despite Kalshi’s CFTC regulation. As of October 22, 2026, Phantom’s rollout requires users to link or open a Kalshi account and complete identity verification. On October 22, 2026, Kalshi continued its promotional efforts with a new user bonus via the code RAD55, offering $55 to customers who make a minimum $10 deposit and complete $25 in cumulative trades across sports, politics, finance, or weather markets. This offer is available to users 18 and older in various U.S. states, excluding Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, and Washington.
Entities
Kalshi · Commodity Futures Trading Commission · Polymarket · CFTC · NFL
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
Coverage disagrees
Sources make claims that cannot both be true. CLSTR reports the disagreement; it does not decide who is right.
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"Kalshi is negotiating a $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation."
vs
"Kalshi secured a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026."
The claims provide different valuations ($40 billion vs $22 billion) and different statuses (negotiating vs secured) for Kalshi's funding round.
- [DISPUTED] Kalshi is negotiating a $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation.
- [DISPUTED] Kalshi secured a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026.
- [● 9 SOURCES] Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in discussions to lead Kalshi's new funding round.
- [● 9 SOURCES] Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group are among the investors discussing participation in the funding round.
- [● 4 SOURCES] Kalshi has held early discussions regarding a potential initial public offering (IPO).
- [● 3 SOURCES] Kalshi offers a sign-up bonus where new customers receive a $25 trading bonus upon making their first $25 trade.
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Sixth Circuit ruled that Kalshi’s sports contracts are not swaps under federal law.
- [● 3 SOURCES] The court ruled that federal law does not preempt Ohio and Tennessee from enforcing their gambling laws against Kalshi.
- [● 3 SOURCES] Polymarket is offering a $25 trading bonus to new users who deposit at least $10.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Super-specific midterm markets have attracted more than $20 million in trading volume.
Timeline
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[TECHNOLOGY] 21 sourcesPhantom launches Kalshi prediction markets for US users
Phantom has started a staged US launch of Kalshi-powered prediction markets, allowing wallet users to trade event-based contracts following CFTC regulatory relief.
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[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesKalshi offers new user bonus for prediction market trading
New Kalshi users can claim a $55 bonus by depositing at least $10 and completing $25 in trades on various prediction markets.
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[BUSINESS] 16 sourcesKalshi expands market access by pitching shared order book to brokers
Kalshi is pitching brokerages access to its shared event-contract order book to increase liquidity and allow firms to offer event-based trading without building their own venues.
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[BUSINESS] 5 sourcesLos Angeles hospitality group uses Kalshi bet to hedge Dodgers playoff loss
A Los Angeles hospitality group used a $60,000 Kalshi bet to hedge against revenue losses after the Dodgers' early playoff exit, demonstrating the growing use of prediction markets as business insurance.
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[SPORTS] 8 sourcesSeahawks vs Broncos matchup drives prediction market activity
The Seattle Seahawks face the Denver Broncos in a Thursday Night Football matchup, driving significant activity across sports prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
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[POLITICS] 27 sourcesKalshi investigates suspicious trades regarding White House press secretary pick
Kalshi is investigating suspicious, well-timed bets on Katie Zacharia’s appointment as White House press secretary, amid concerns that midterm prediction markets are vulnerable to insider trading.
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[BUSINESS] 9 sourcesKalshi offers promotional bonuses for MLB and NFL prediction markets
Kalshi is offering new users various promotional bonuses, ranging from $55 to up to $2,000, to trade on prediction markets including the MLB playoffs and NFL season.
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[BUSINESS] 11 sourcesKalshi offers new user bonuses for sports and event prediction markets
Kalshi is offering new users various promotional bonuses, including randomized rewards up to $2,000 and fixed $55 credits, to trade on sports and other prediction markets.
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[BUSINESS] 10 sourcesKalshi and Polymarket offer new user bonuses for sports and event trading
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are launching various promotional bonuses for new users to trade NFL, MLB, and political event contracts.
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[BUSINESS] 33 sourcesKalshi negotiates $1B funding round at $40B valuation amid legal disputes
Kalshi is negotiating a $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation while facing a legal setback as a federal appeals court ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can enforce gambling laws against its sports-bet
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[BUSINESS] 11 sourcesKalshi offers promotional bonuses for prediction market trading
Kalshi is offering new users various promotional bonuses, including $55 deposit matches and up to $2,000 in rewards for trading on prediction markets like the NFL, college football, and politics.
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[BUSINESS] 4 sourcesKalshi offers trading bonuses for WNBA markets
Kalshi is offering new users a $55 bonus on a $25 deposit, providing $80 in total trading funds for various markets, including WNBA contracts.
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[BUSINESS] 12 sourcesKalshi offers various promotional bonuses for NFL Week 2 trading
Kalshi is offering various promotional bonuses for new users to trade event contracts on NFL Week 2 games, UFC 331, and other markets via several registration codes.
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[BUSINESS] 13 sourcesSports betting platforms launch NFL Week 2 promotions
Multiple betting and prediction platforms, including Hard Rock Bet, BetMGM, Kalshi, and Polymarket, have launched promotional offers for NFL Week 2 and upcoming MLB games.
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[BUSINESS] 10 sourcesKalshi offers trading bonuses for prediction market users
Kalshi is offering new users $25 bonuses for trading event contracts on various markets, including NFL and MLB games, subject to specific eligibility and trading requirements in the U.S.
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[BUSINESS] 6 sourcesAlpaca partners with Kalshi to offer prediction market event contracts
Alpaca is partnering with Kalshi to offer prediction market event contracts through its global brokerage infrastructure, reaching approximately 14 million accounts across 300 financial institutions.
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[BUSINESS] 9 sourcesKalshi and Polymarket offer bonuses for prediction market trading
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are offering sign-up bonuses to new users for trading on sports, politics, and other real-world event outcomes.
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[BUSINESS] 5 sourcesKalshi dominates prediction market volume as post-World Cup interest declines
Prediction market trading volumes have dropped below $10 billion weekly following the 2026 FIFA World Cup, though CFTC-regulated Kalshi has secured a dominant share of the US market.
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[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesKalshi offers trading bonuses for new prediction market users
Prediction market platform Kalshi is offering new users a $25 bonus upon completing $25 in trades across various markets, including sports, politics, and finance.
Sources
al.com · alienwp.com · bestofneworleans.com · bhaskarlive.in · bitcoinke.io · blockchainseoul.kr · blockmedia.co.kr · businessnews.com.my · busr.ag · canadasportsbetting.ca · cbs58.com · cleveland.com · coindeskjapan.com · coinedition.com · coingeek.com · covers.com · criptonoticias.com.br · criptotendencias.com · crossingbroad.com · crypto.news · cryptobriefing.com · cryptonomist.ch · cryptopolitan.com · defirate.com · denverstiffs.com · econoTimes.com · elitesportsny.com · europesays.com · fantasylabs.com · financemagnates.com · flurrysports.org · foodtechconnect.com · fortune.com · freerepublic.com · fxnewsgroup.com · gambling911.com · gritdaily.com · gulfnews.com · hackernoon.com · joemygod.com · keyt.com · kion546.com · krdo.com · letsmoney.com.br · mangalorean.com · mardigras.com · masslive.com · mediaite.com
This summary has been updated 48 times: see revision history