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[POLITICS] · United States · 11 sources

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Part of situation: Texas 2026 Senate race: Dead heat and demographic divides (116 clusters)

Texas Senate race: Talarico leads Paxton in recent polls amid massive GOP spending

Texas Senate race Ken Paxton James Talarico GOP Senate Leadership Fund political polling

The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico has become a high-stakes battleground, marked by massive spending and unexpected polling shifts. A political action committee affiliated with the GOP Senate Leadership Fund has reportedly spent over $131 million in just over two weeks to bolster Paxton's campaign.

Recent polling suggests a significant challenge for the Republican incumbent. A New York Times/Siena poll shows Talarico leading by six points, while a Fox News poll indicates a seven-point lead among registered voters. Although the lead narrows to one point among likely voters in the Fox poll, the results have surprised many observers in a traditionally Republican state.

Financial disparities are also notable; Talarico had raised approximately $68.6 million by June, significantly outpacing Paxton's $9.2 million at that time. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has actively campaigned for Paxton, describing him as one of his most loyal allies. However, polling also indicates declining approval for Trump within Texas, showing him underwater with both Latino voters and non-college voters.

Entities

Donald Trump · Gina Hinojosa · James Talarico · Ken Paxton · Reid Hoffman · Republican Party · Texas

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

  • [● 2 SOURCES] Donald Trump praised Ken Paxton as one of his most loyal supporters during a speech in Denton, Texas. offthepress.com · justthenews.com
  • [● 2 SOURCES] A Fox News poll indicates James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by seven points among registered voters, with a narrower lead among likely voters. www.mediaite.com · newrepublic.com
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] A New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by six points in the Texas U.S. Senate race. www.joemygod.com
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] James Talarico raised $68.6 million as of June, compared to Ken Paxton's $9.2 million. www.mediaite.com
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] A Texas PAC affiliated with the GOP Senate Leadership Fund has spent over $131 million in the last 17 days to support Ken Paxton. www.ibtimes.com
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] The Fox News poll shows Donald Trump's approval in Texas at 44 percent, while his disapproval stands at 55 percent. newrepublic.com

Sources

Trump praises Paxton as 'one of the most loyal people' in Texas speech [offthepress.com]
Trump praises Paxton as 'one of the most loyal people' in Texas speech [justthenews.com]
Ken Paxton Gets $131 Million Boost From PAC As GOP's Concern About Texas Senate Race Grows [www.ibtimes.com]
Time for Talarico [macshieldonline.com]
Talarico’s Epstein Attack On Paxton Boomerangs As His Own Donor Network Draws Scrutiny [wltreport.com]
NYT/Siena Poll: James Talarico +6, Gina Hinojosa +4 [www.joemygod.com]
Talarico’s Epstein Attack On Paxton Boomerangs As His Own Donor Network Draws Scrutiny – 100PercentFedUp. com – by Donald [100percentfedup.com]
Paxton shows narrow lead over Talarico in Texas U. S. Senate Race, according to new poll [justthenews.com]
Fox Host Stunned By Network Poll In Texas Senate Race, Asks ‘How is That Possible?’ [www.mediaite.com]
New Fox Poll—a Disaster for Trump—Rattles Fox Anchors: “Wake Up!” [newrepublic.com]
Talarico goes straight to Paxton’s voicemail — and turns it into a campaign ad | Blaze Media [www.theblaze.com]