Ken Paxton Leads Texas Senate Race Over Democrat James Talarico

Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is ahead of Democrat state Rep. James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate race, according to a recent poll showing Paxton at 49% and Talarico at 47%. The race follows Paxton’s long history of legal controversies, including a felony securities‑fraud indictment that was resolved in 2024, and an impeachment inquiry. Despite these issues, Paxton has won every prior statewide contest, and Republican officials say his candidacy could cost the party up to $150 million in the general election. Talarico, who has shifted positions on several issues and faced personal scandals, remains competitive but trails among former John Cornyn supporters. The poll also notes strong support for Republican Governor Greg Abbott, suggesting a favorable environment for the GOP ticket in November.

Political analysts view Paxton’s legal baggage as a liability but not necessarily a deal‑breaker, while Democrats see the race as an opportunity to contest a traditionally safe Republican seat.