Ken Paxton Leads Tight Texas Senate Race Over James Talarico

A recent Quantus Insights poll of 800 likely voters in Texas shows Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 45% support, narrowly ahead of Democratic state representative James Talarico, who holds 43%. The two‑point margin makes the U.S. Senate contest the closest statewide race in the Lone Star State, while the governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general races each show single‑candidate leads well above that gap.

Demographic analysis indicates Paxton draws stronger backing from older, white, rural voters and the core Republican base, whereas Talarico is favored by younger, urban, college‑educated, Black and swing voters. Prediction‑market platforms also tilt toward Paxton, with roughly 60% of bets backing his victory versus about 40% for Talarico. Both candidates are highlighting contrasting visions for Texas, and the race is attracting national attention given the narrow polling and its potential impact on Senate composition.