Kenya and developing nations face poverty risks from El Niño and rising costs

Developing nations, including Kenya, Uzbekistan, and Haiti, are facing severe economic and food security risks due to a combination of climate patterns, geopolitical conflict, and rising debt costs.

In Kenya, a model indicates that the overlapping impacts of a strengthening El Niño and rising fuel and fertilizer prices—driven by conflict in Iran and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—could lead to significant hardship. Potential consequences include slower economic growth, reduced agricultural production, and sharp declines in food security. Under certain scenarios, nearly 756,000 additional people could fall into poverty, while approximately 4.9 million more could face undernourishment.

A United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report, ‘No Time to Recover: Compounding Crises, Depleted Fiscal Buffers and What It Means for Developing Economies’, warns that rising living costs could push an additional 130 million people below the US$6.85-a-day poverty line. The report highlights that many developing nations are struggling with high interest payments on government debt, which limits their ability to provide social safety nets as energy and food prices climb.