Economic and food security risks in developing nations

Developing nations, including Kenya and Namibia, face significant economic and food security risks driven by climate patterns and supply disruptions. Early assessments suggested that El Niño, rising fuel and fertilizer prices, and geopolitical conflicts could lead to severe hardship, with models predicting millions facing undernourishment in Kenya.

By mid-October 2026, economic data reflected these pressures. Kenya’s annual inflation rose to 6.8% in September, up from 6.6% in August, driven by food, transport, and housing costs. While this remains within the Central Bank of Kenya’s target range of 2.5% to 7.5%, the bank maintained interest rates at 8.75% and revised its 2026 economic growth forecast upward to 5.0%.

In Kenya, prolonged dry conditions linked to El Niño patterns have disrupted the dairy sector. The Kenya Dairy Board reported that formal-sector milk collection fell to 75 million litres in August from 84.4 million litres in June. This shortage has resulted in empty supermarket shelves in Nairobi and rising retail prices. While rains may eventually improve pasture, experts suggest prices for bread and cooking oil may remain high due to international market volatility in the Black Sea and Southeast Asia.

In Namibia, headline inflation reached 5.4% in September 2026. Standard Bank Namibia projects inflation could reach 5.2% in 2027, driven by potential oil shocks and domestic food threats, including a Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak affecting approximately 29,000 animals. Persistent El Niño-induced droughts also threaten crop yields and hydroelectric power generation, which could increase utility tariffs.