Kenya prepares for strong El Niño and high-risk flooding

The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued warnings regarding an anticipated strong El Niño event, with an 81 per cent probability of intense rainfall starting in October and a 97 per cent chance of effects persisting into early 2027.

The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has identified 18 high-risk counties prioritized for emergency response. Vulnerable regions include the Coast (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa, and Kwwale), the Lake Basin (Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori), the Rift Valley (Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot, Narok, and Elgeyo Marakwet), and the North Eastern region (Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera).

Risks identified include flash floods, landslides, coastal erosion, disease outbreaks, and displacement. Major urban centers such as Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu are also flagged due to potential drainage blockages and infrastructure strain. While the forecast suggests above-normal rainfall, some areas may still experience drought-related impacts or water scarcity, particularly in North Eastern counties.

Beyond immediate physical risks, experts note the economic implications of the weather shift, including potential impacts on hydropower, agricultural production, and telecommunications infrastructure reliability.