started · updated
Kenya Meteorological Authority warns of heavy El Niño rains
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has issued warnings regarding above-average rainfall expected during the October to December 2026 short rains season. The forecast is driven by an intensifying 2026 El Niño event, which reached a Niño 3.4 index of +2.7°C as of August 12, 2026.
KMSA projects that the heavy rains could lead to floods and landslides across the country. Above-average rainfall is anticipated in all 47 counties, with intensity expected to increase in the Central, Rift Valley, Lake Victoria basin, and Western Kenya regions.
Rainfall onset is expected to vary by region. Some counties, including Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, and Bungoma, may see rains as early as September. Other areas, such as Nairobi, Kiambu, and Meru, are projected to experience the onset during the second or third weeks of October. The authority also noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral but may transition to a positive state after September.
Entities
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The intensifying El Niño is expected to bring heavy rains, potentially causing floods and landslides.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Rainfall onset is expected in some counties as early as September, with others starting in October.
- [● 2 SOURCES] The 2026 El Niño event is intensifying across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. radiogeneration.co.ke
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Above-average rainfall is projected across all 47 Kenyan counties.
- [● 2 SOURCES] The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) predicts above-average rainfall for the October to December 2026 season. radiogeneration.co.ke
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The weekly Niño 3.4 index reached +2.7°C as of August 12, 2026. radiogeneration.co.ke