Lebanon's Army Faces Sectarian Rift as Israeli Ambassador Warns of Civil War

Israeli ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter said the Lebanese Armed Forces are marginalising Shiite soldiers because many Shiites are reluctant to fight Hezbollah. He estimated that 25‑30 % of the army is Shiite and that 30‑50 % of those support Hezbollah, and claimed that the recent consolidation of Lebanon’s government has pushed those elements aside.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun rejected the ambassador’s assertions, denying any plan to form a new brigade or a U.S.‑led effort to screen the army for action against Hezbollah. Analysts warned that stripping the army of its Shiite component could undermine the country’s only genuinely multiconfessional institution and dramatically raise the risk of civil unrest.

Some Israeli commentators have openly stated that a Lebanese civil war would serve Israel’s interests, while U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance compared a potential Iranian collapse to the Libyan civil war, arguing that such chaos would not benefit American strategic interests.