London Metal Exchange basic metals tumble then rally amid US‑Iran tensions

On July 8, prices for all three‑month contracts on the London Metal Exchange fell except for nickel and lead. Copper closed at $13,255 per tonne, down 0.60%; aluminium at $3,138.50, down 0.02%; tin at $52,185, down 1.54%; zinc at $3,528, down 1.20%. Nickel rose 0.89% to $16,420 and lead rose 0.19% to $1,891. Traders linked the decline to heightened U.S.–Iran conflict – U.S. air strikes on Iran, the termination of a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, and the near‑stop of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – which boosted safe‑haven demand and pushed the dollar index above 101, while weaker U.S. June jobs data eased expectations of further Fed rate hikes.

On July 9 the market reversed, with all six metals posting gains. Copper rose 1.71% to $13,481, aluminium 2.29% to $3,210.50, nickel 1.13% to $16,605, lead 0.19% to $1,894.50, tin 2.18% to $53,325 and zinc 2.49% to $3,616 per tonne. The rally was driven by a modest easing of macro pressure, the dollar index slipping below 101, and a renewed perception of supply‑risk premium from the Iran situation, combined with tightening fundamentals and rigid supply constraints across the metals.