Lula ahead in BTG/Nexus 2026 poll, neck‑and‑neck with Flávio Bolsonaro in second‑round simulations

A BTG/Nexus poll released on 29 June shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the 2026 presidential race with 42 % of voting intentions in the first‑round scenario. In simulated second‑round match‑ups, Lula registers 47 % against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 44 %, a technical tie within the two‑point margin of error. The survey also details regional splits: Lula enjoys a strong advantage in the Northeast (around 60 % vs 30 % for Bolsonaro), while Bolsonaro leads in the South and North/Centre‑West, and the Southeast remains closely contested.

Other candidates lag far behind, with Ronaldo Caiado at 5 %, Renan Santos at 4 % and Romeu Zema at 3 % of intentions. Lula’s support is especially high among Bolsa Família beneficiaries (68 %) and in spontaneous voting (38 % vs 27 % for Bolsonaro).

Within the PT, negotiations over the Minas Gerais governorship continue. A meeting between PT national president Edinho Silva and former Contagem mayor Marília Campos ended without an agreement on her candidacy, leaving the party without a definitive candidate for the crucial state. The party has resolved to run its own candidate after earlier plans to back Rodrigo Pacheco or Gabriel Azevedo fell through.

In the Senate, newly appointed government leader Teresa Leitão met with Lula to coordinate the agenda, seeking to advance priority constitutional amendments on health agents’ pensions, the end of the 6×1 work schedule, and public security, despite ongoing friction with Senate president Davi Alcolumbre.

Separately, the PT held its first national meeting of Catholic members, attended by First Lady Janja Lula da Silva and party president Edinho Silva, as part of the party’s broader outreach to religious constituencies ahead of the election.