Marina Silva and Simone Tebet top Datafolha poll for São Paulo Senate race

A Datafolha poll released on 6‑7 July shows former ministers Marina Silva (Rede) and Simone Tebet (PSB) leading the 2026 Senate race in São Paulo with 18 % and 16 % of voting intentions respectively, a technical tie with former minister Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 13 %. Other candidates include André do Prado (PL) at 11 %, Guilherme Derrite (PP) at 10 % and Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade) at 8 %; 17 % of respondents said they would vote blank or null and 7 % were undecided. The poll was conducted among 1,608 voters in 71 municipalities and is registered with the electoral courts.

The same candidates are at the centre of a legal controversy. The São Paulo Regional Electoral Prosecutor’s Office has filed a complaint seeking to convict President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the two pre‑candidates for alleged early‑campaign propaganda after Lula, at a May government event, urged voters to “give vote to the two,” referring explicitly to Marina Silva and Simone Tebet. The office argues the statement meets the criteria for prohibited early election propaganda.

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) has also criticised the candidacies, claiming the women are “not from São Paulo” and have received a “red card” in their home states, further highlighting the political tensions surrounding the upcoming Senate contest.