Marine Le Pen cleared to run, leads French 2027 presidential polls

A Paris appellate court reduced the election‑ineligibility period for Marine Le Pen after confirming her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds. The court sentenced her to three years in prison, two of which are suspended, and ordered one year of electronic‑bracelet monitoring. The ban on holding public office was cut from five years to 45 months, with 30 months suspended, meaning the restriction has already expired and Le Pen can stand in the 2027 presidential election.

Le Pen announced her fourth candidacy immediately after the ruling and framed the decision as political persecution, a narrative that resonates with her base. Polls conducted by Elabe for BFM TV and La Tribune show her ahead of all rivals, capturing between 34 % and 36 % of the vote in the first round, a gain of three to four points since March. Her closest competitor is former prime minister Edouard Philippe with around 16‑19 %, while left‑wing candidates Jean‑Luc Mélenchon and Gabriel Attal trail further behind. In all second‑round scenarios Le Pen is favoured, notably 67 %–70 % against Mélenchon and a narrow 52 %–48 % edge over Philippe.

Jordan Bardella remains the party’s second‑in‑command and is positioned as a potential prime minister if the National Rally wins. The European Union is watching the race closely, fearing a far‑right government in Paris could affect EU policy and budget negotiations.