started · updated
Marine Le Pen leads French presidential polls following civil unrest
Recent opinion polls conducted following the civil unrest on October 17 indicate a surge in support for far-right leader Marine Le Pen ahead of the 2027 French presidential election. According to surveys by Ifop-Fiducial and Harris Interactive, Le Pen is projected to receive between 33% and 38% of the vote in the first round, depending on the candidate configuration.
In potential second-round matchups, Le Pen is expected to defeat all major contenders. She holds a significant advantage against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with projections suggesting she could secure between 68% and 70% of the vote in a duel against him. Other potential second-round scenarios include matchups against Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann, where Le Pen is projected to win with approximately 56% to 59% of the vote.
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is projected to receive between 15% and 20% of the vote in the first round, often placing him in second position. Other candidates, including Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann, are seeing varying levels of support, with Philippe estimated between 13% and 16% and Glucksmann between 12% and 16%. The polls suggest that the recent unrest has consolidated the far-right voter base, while centrist candidates face increased competition.
Entities
Emmanuel Macron · France · Ifop-Fiducial · Jean-Luc Mélenchon · Marine Le Pen · National Rally · Raphaël Glucksmann · Édouard Philippe
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Le Pen is facing potential legal consequences regarding a conviction for misuse of EU funds.
- [● 3 SOURCES] Le Pen would receive 57% of the vote in a second-round matchup against Raphaël Glucksmann. bellerdigital.net · nczas.info · www.vesti.bg
- [● 4 SOURCES] Le Pen would receive 56% of the vote in a second-round matchup against Edouard Philippe. bellerdigital.net · www.vesti.bg · nczas.info · novini247.com
- [● 11 SOURCES] Le Pen's first-round support increased by one to two percentage points compared to previous comparable polls. bellerdigital.net · nczas.info · novini247.com · www.standartnews.com · www.vesti.bg · +5 more
- [● 16 SOURCES] Marine Le Pen is projected to receive between 34% and 38% of the vote in the first round of the 2027 presidential election. bellerdigital.net · nczas.info · novini247.com · viaranews.com · a1on.mk · +11 more
- [DISPUTED] In a second-round matchup against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Le Pen would receive 68% of the vote. bellerdigital.net · nczas.info · novini247.com · viaranews.com · a1on.mk · +2 more
- [● 11 SOURCES] Jean-Luc Mélenchon is projected to receive between 15% and 20% of the vote in the first round. bellerdigital.net · novini247.com · viaranews.com · www.faz.net · www.diepresse.com · +5 more
- [● 6 SOURCES] Emmanuel Macron is unable to run for re-election in the upcoming presidential election. www.faz.net · www.diepresse.com · www.cash.ch · www.zdfheute.de · www.moneycab.com
- [● 6 SOURCES] Gabriel Attal is credited with 5% to 11% of the vote. www.estrepublicain.fr · www.republicain-lorrain.fr · www.ledauphine.com · www.upday.com · www.bl-portal.com · +1 more
- [● 8 SOURCES] Édouard Philippe is credited with 13% to 16% of the vote. www.estrepublicain.fr · www.republicain-lorrain.fr · www.ledauphine.com · bellerdigital.net · novini247.com · +3 more
- [DISPUTED] Le Pen could win 70% of the vote in a second-round duel against Mélenchon. www.estrepublicain.fr · www.republicain-lorrain.fr · www.ledauphine.com · www.bl-portal.com · www.lejsl.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Marine Le Pen holds 33% to 35% of voting intentions for the first round. www.estrepublicain.fr · www.republicain-lorrain.fr · www.ledauphine.com