Marine Le Pen surges in polls amid French student unrest

Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party have seen a surge in polling and prediction markets amid escalating student unrest across France. On the Polymarket platform, Le Pen’s probability of winning the 2027 presidential election rose to 45.1 percent as of early October, up from 38.4 percent in late September.

The unrest, which has affected more than 1,200 schools, began over issues including teacher shortages and deteriorating school infrastructure. The protests have escalated into widespread violence involving arson, vandalism, and attacks on police and emergency workers, resulting in approximately 5,000 arrests. French intelligence has accused the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) and its proxies of organizing the mobilization, a claim LFI denies.

While recent polling by IFOP places Le Pen in the lead for the first round of the 2027 election with support between 35 and 40 percent, analysts warn of significant uncertainty. The political landscape remains fragmented among potential candidates such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, and Gabriel Attal. Because President Emmanuel Macron is ineligible for a third consecutive term, the upcoming election is expected to feature high volatility and numerous new candidacies.