Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus polls near threshold as PiS loses ground
Recent opinion polls show former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s new political formation Rozwój Plus hovering around 6‑8 percent support, enough to clear the 5 percent parliamentary threshold and secure a place in the Sejm. The IBRiS poll for Polsat News gave Rozwój Plus 7.8 percent, while United Surveys and other surveys reported similar figures. In the same polls Koalicja Obywatelska leads with roughly 27‑29 percent, and Law and Justice (PiS) has fallen to about 16‑17 percent, down sharply from earlier double‑digit leads.
The split from PiS has seen about 40 Sejm members join the Rozwój Plus club, prompting disciplinary proceedings within PiS and a series of SMS messages to the defectors that some politicians claim they have not fully read. Morawiecki has been active in promoting the movement, organising a “grill” event, a planned party convention, and even proposing a one‑on‑one debate with Donald Tusk. He emphasizes that Rozwój Plus aims to attract voters disillusioned with both the ruling right‑wing coalition and the opposition.
Analysts note that the emergence of Rozwój Plus could reshape the right‑wing vote in the upcoming parliamentary election, potentially siphoning support from PiS and influencing coalition dynamics.
Entities: Confederation (Polish right‑wing coalition) · Donald Tusk · Jarosław Kaczyński · Karol Nawrocki · Koalicja Obywatelska · Law and Justice (PiS) · Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) · Mateusz Morawiecki · Rozwój Plus · United Surveys
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 6 SOURCES] In the same poll, 32.1 % of respondents said the Polish right has no clear leader. (United Surveys poll (24‑25 July 2026))
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Simulation based on poll data gives Rozwój Plus an estimated 16 seats in the Sejm. (Simulation using poll data)
- [● 6 SOURCES] In the same poll, 19.8 % of respondents named Jarosław Kaczyński as the factual leader of the Polish right. (United Surveys poll (24‑25 July 2026))
- [● 6 SOURCES] In a United Surveys poll conducted on 24‑25 July 2026, 20.4 % of respondents named Karol Nawrocki as the factual leader of the Polish right. (United Surveys poll (24‑25 July 2026))
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Across six recent surveys, Rozwój Plus averages about 6.1 % support. (Average of six polls (including United Surveys, IBRiS, Opinia24, Pollster))
- [● 6 SOURCES] In the same poll, 9.1 % of respondents named Mateusz Morawiecki as the factual leader of the Polish right. (United Surveys poll (24‑25 July 2026))
- [● 3 SOURCES] Mateusz Morawiecki formed the parliamentary club Rozwój Plus with about 40 deputies and one senator. (Reports on club formation)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński considered expelling Morawiecki but sent the decision to the party’s disciplinary committee. (German article on PiS internal conflict)
- [● 3 SOURCES] Karol Karski said the PiS membership of the 40 deputies is “dead”. (existing)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Four remaining MPs want to stay PiS members “for life and one day longer”. (Karol Karski)
- [● 2 SOURCES] PiS sent SMS messages to the affected members, but some did not read them fully. (existing)
- [● 3 SOURCES] 40 of those members are part of the Rozwój Plus association and have joined its parliamentary club. (existing)