Mato Grosso industry braces for Super El Niño cost surge as experts dispute severity

The Mato Grosso Observatory warned that a potential Super El Niño could raise industrial costs and strain raw‑material supplies in the state. Irregular rainfall, above‑average temperatures and a heightened risk of water deficit throughout the 2026 winter may curb agricultural output, push up food prices, increase reliance on thermal power plants and raise electricity and logistics expenses for the region’s agro‑industrial sector.

Professor Luiz Carlos Molion challenged the alarmist forecasts, saying the current Pacific warming is not a traditional El Niño but a temporary heat wave triggered by a 7.5‑magnitude earthquake in Japan. He noted a lack of atmospheric‑ocean coupling and early signs of cooling, urging producers to avoid panic and anticipating only a possible delay in the Central‑West rain season rather than a major drought.

Both perspectives highlight uncertainty over how the phenomenon will affect Brazil’s agriculture and industry, with calls for data‑driven planning amid divergent scientific opinions.