Mexico and California Avocado Production Surge Stabilizes Prices

Record avocado exports from Mexico combined with a strong Californian crop in the 2025/26 season have pushed U.S. avocado supply to historic highs, narrowing size‑based price spreads and normalising wholesale prices. Organic avocados now command premiums of up to 70%, while non‑GMO varieties see similar price advantages. The abundant supply has heightened market sensitivity, with even modest volume shifts affecting pricing.

Rabobank notes that the market is seeing a consolidation trend, highlighted by the merger of major Mexican exporters Mission Produce and Calavo, and calls for greater labour compliance and traceability. Meanwhile, the avocado‑oil segment reports a stable‑to‑soft price outlook as increased raw‑material availability eases feedstock pressure, sustaining demand across food, cosmetics and nutraceutical applications. Analysts project continued growth driven by consumer preference for sustainable and healthy products.