Mexico’s export‑driven growth outlook steadies amid strong US trade ties

Mexico’s near‑term growth outlook remains modest, with forecasts of 0.8 %‑1.3 % annual expansion for 2026. Analysts attribute the limited pace to domestic factors, but stress that the external sector – especially exports to the United States – could lift expectations in the second half of the year. Guillermo Malpica Soto highlighted that Mexico ranks among the top five U.S. trade partners for 45 of the 50 states and that bilateral trade totals about $870 billion in goods and $100 billion in services. Under the T‑MEC, which will be reviewed annually through 2036, Mexico will keep duty‑free access for more than 80 % of its exports to the U.S.

In April 2026 the monthly IGAE indicator rose 2.17 % YoY, driven primarily by a 7.6 % jump in construction linked to World‑Cup‑related projects. Primary, tertiary and secondary activities all posted gains, and manufacturing exports surged 25.1 % YoY to $62.99 billion, largely to the United States. Foreign direct investment reached a record $23.59 billion in Q1 2026, a 10.4 % increase year‑on‑year. Inflation in May stood at 3.94 % annual, with core inflation at 4.19 %, prompting Banxico to keep its policy rate at 6.5 %. The peso traded around 17.40 per dollar.

These data point to a growth trajectory that, while still restrained, rests on a robust export sector and strong U.S. trade relations, offering potential upside later in the year.