Mexico expects lower real tax revenue from flavored beverages in 2027

Mexico's federal revenue projections for 2027 indicate a potential decrease in real tax collection from flavored beverages and energy drinks, despite recent tax increases. According to the Federation Revenue Law initiative, the government expects to collect 76,920.5 million pesos from flavored beverages in 2027, compared to 75,290 million pesos projected for 2026.

While this represents a nominal increase, specialists from the Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria (CIEP) note that when accounting for an estimated 3% inflation rate, the real revenue would actually drop by approximately 1%. Revenue from energy drinks is projected to fall from 100.2 million to 94.8 million pesos, an 8.32% real decrease.

The tax changes implemented in 2026 raised the rate for flavored beverages from approximately 1.65 to 3.08 pesos per liter and introduced a 1.50 peso per liter tax on beverages with non-caloric sweeteners. Experts suggest the lower revenue projections may result from decreased consumer demand due to higher prices, or reflect adjustments based on observed collection trends.

In contrast, revenue from non-basic foods with high caloric density is expected to see a real increase of 2.54%, reaching 45,350.4 million pesos in 2027.