Mexico faces investment slowdown and rating pressure amid debt and legal uncertainty

Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones warned that a lack of legal certainty is stalling investment and keeping Mexico’s economic engine off, noting that public debt has risen to 58.9% of GDP, close to the 60% threshold that could jeopardise the country’s investment‑grade rating. He linked the legal‑political climate and over‑representation of the ruling party in Congress to the slowdown, citing projects such as the Tren Maya, Dos Bocas and PEMEX as examples of stalled private investment.

Standard & Poor’s reiterated its negative outlook for Mexico’s sovereign rating, stating that persistent fiscal deficits, rising debt service costs and the prolonged renegotiation of the US‑Mexico‑Canada (T‑MEC) agreement could trigger a downgrade within 24 months. The agency projects GDP growth of about 1 percent in 2026 and highlights that a stronger private‑sector investment rebound could stabilize public finances and improve the rating outlook.

Despite these headwinds, the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social reported a record 22.78 million formal jobs in June, up 454 thousand from the previous year, driven mainly by transport, communications, finance, tourism and construction. The employment surge reflects the temporary boost from the 2026 World Cup and aligns with OECD forecasts of low unemployment in Mexico.