Mexico's economy shows modest recovery as construction rebounds

Mexico’s economic slowdown appears to have halted, with recent data indicating a tentative revival. Officials highlighted twelve positive indicators, though analysts note that per‑capita output remains below 2018 levels and growth potential is projected at under 2% annually.

Construction activity is driving the latest uptick, supported by public infrastructure projects that have lifted private investment. Inflation has eased to about 3.4% year‑over‑year, its lowest in over five years, and the central bank’s benchmark rate sits at 6.5%, leaving room for a possible cut. However, manufacturing and automotive production continue to decline, and exports face pressure from concentration in the United States and the lack of a TMEC extension.

Overall, the outlook points to cautious optimism, with construction growth expected to reach around 2% in 2026 while broader economic dynamics remain fragile.