Mexico's electricity system lagging as demand outpaces official forecasts

Mexico’s Plan México aims to place the economy among the world’s ten largest by 2030, requiring a rapid expansion of electricity use. The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) warns that the nation’s power demand could grow at about 4.5% per year—roughly double the 2.5% growth projected by the Energy Secretariat (SENER). Under the high‑growth scenario, total demand would reach 454,335 GWh by 2030, leaving a shortfall of 41,633 GWh (about 10%). To bridge the gap, an additional 11.9 GW of generation capacity would be needed.

IMCO highlights chronic under‑investment since 2018, especially in transmission and distribution networks. State utility CFE’s 2025 capital spending fell 23.8% year‑on‑year, with only 11% of approved transmission funds spent, causing service interruptions to rise (SAIDI from 6.1 to over 11 minutes). Oscar Ocampo of IMCO stressed that “the current electric infrastructure could become a constraint on economic growth.” The institute recommends accelerating mixed‑ownership development schemes, easing private‑generation permits, and prioritizing transmission upgrades.

The analysis links rising demand to electrified transport, digitalisation, and artificial‑intelligence adoption, underscoring the urgency of expanding Mexico’s power system.