Mexico electricity demand outpaces capacity

In early July, Mexico’s state utility CFE reported rapid progress toward near‑universal electricity access, completing almost 3,000 projects and targeting 99.99 % coverage by the end of 2028. At the same time, the wind‑energy sector announced a US$4‑5 billion plan to add roughly 2,200 MW, pushing total installed wind power beyond 10 GW.

By late July, analysts warned that demand growth could outstrip supply. The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) projected electricity use rising 4.5 % annually, suggesting a 10 % shortfall by 2030 and the need for an additional 11.9 GW of generation. The institute highlighted chronic under‑investment in transmission and distribution, with CFE’s 2025 capital spending down 23.8 % year‑on‑year and only 11 % of approved transmission funds spent, causing outage durations (SAIDI) to rise above 11 minutes.

In July 2026, IMCO warned that demand could grow at roughly double the 2.5 % rate forecast by the Energy Secretariat, reaching 454,335 GWh by 2030 and confirming the 10 % gap. It reiterated recommendations to accelerate mixed‑ownership generation schemes, ease private‑generation permits, and prioritize transmission upgrades.

Three days later, Mexico’s National Electrical System recorded a historic peak demand of 54,300 MW, driven by intensive industrial activity, data‑centers and near‑shoring projects. Installed generation capacity stands at about 93,400 MW—roughly twice the peak—but CFE says grid modernisation is required to handle such fluctuations and avoid constraints on economic growth.