Mexico's GDP growth outlook lowered to 1.1% for 2026

The Mexican Institute of Executives in Finance (IMEF) survey showed its median projection for real GDP growth in 2026 falling to 1.1%, down from a previous range of 1.6%‑1.7%. Participants gave a most optimistic outlook of 1.6% and a most pessimistic of 0.4%. The survey kept the 2026 inflation forecast at 4.3% and the public primary balance at a deficit of 4.0% of GDP. The Bank of Mexico’s policy rate is expected to stay at 6.50% by year‑end, with the peso projected to close around 18 per dollar. Expected IMSS job creation for 2026 was trimmed from 270,000 to 250,000.

Economist María Antonieta Pacheco Pantoja warned that the slower growth could dampen consumer confidence and affect key sectors in Yucatán, especially retail, services and tourism‑linked supply chains. She emphasized the need for stronger local investment to offset potential job losses and warned that speculative real‑estate projects may face greater financing difficulties, while well‑planned developments with solid legal standing could remain resilient. The slowdown, combined with rising food and energy prices, may erode household purchasing power in the region.