Mexico's heavy vehicle market to grow modestly by 2026 amid financing hurdles

The Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA) forecasts the heavy‑vehicle market will reach 38,425 units by the end of 2026, a modest 0.3% increase over 2025. Growth is constrained by a 55.9% rise in used heavy‑vehicle imports from the United States, an aging fleet (about 20% over 19 years old, nearly 30% over 25 years), low economic growth, a monetary policy rate around 6.5%, security concerns and uncertainty surrounding the US‑Mexico‑Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA).

Financing conditions remain tight despite broader credit expansion. The opportunity index for new vehicle financing in Q1 2026 was 15,356 units (≈ 8.1 billion MXN), similar to 2025, but total annual financing volume has fallen. About 75.5% of vehicle purchases were financed nationally in early 2026, yet rejection rates are high—averaging 30% at captive lenders and up to 60‑65% for sub‑prime financiers. Major barriers include limited borrower income, poor credit histories, and stringent credit‑bureau criteria, leaving roughly half of applicants denied financing.