El Niño forecast predicts 63 % chance of very strong event by early 2027

Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued a warning that there is a 63 % probability the El Niño climate pattern will reach “very strong” intensity between November 2026 and January 2027. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a similar outlook, calling the upcoming episode a potential “super El Niño.” South‑American authorities echo the concern: Peru’s regional government said the phenomenon could reach “strong” levels on the Pacific coast, and the Piura region announced a coordinated response plan to mitigate flood risk. In Colombia, national and local agencies in Medellín and Santa Marta are preparing for higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased wildfire danger, while the Colombian government warned that the heat could trigger severe heat‑stroke cases. Global markets feel the ripple‑effect: a Reuters analysis notes that a strong El Niño would raise temperatures and disrupt rainfall, threatening cocoa, coffee and other tropical soft‑commodity harvests. Scientific research published in *Geophysical Research Letters* suggests that, under 2 °C of global warming, El Niño’s impacts on North America may weaken, but the event could intensify climate disruptions elsewhere, including Europe and the North Atlantic. Industry analysts in Colombia highlight that energy‑intensive sectors—steel, chemicals, agro‑industry and data‑center operations—are especially vulnerable to higher electricity tariffs and water‑stress linked to El Niño. Overall, the forecast points to heightened risk of heat waves, droughts, floods, wildfires, reduced crop yields and rising food prices worldwide.