Mexico's private sector trims 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.09%

Analysts from 43 domestic and foreign consulting groups surveyed by Banxico lowered their projection for Mexico’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.09%, down from a previous estimate of 1.39%. The same survey reduced the 2027 growth outlook to 1.78% from 1.82%. Inflation expectations for the end of 2026 were revised slightly downward to 4.36% (from 4.37%) and are now seen at about 3.84%‑3.85% for 2027, still above Banxico’s 3% ± 1% target. The peso‑dollar rate is expected to close 2026 at roughly 17.90 per dollar, improving on earlier forecasts of around 18.02, with a 2027 projection near 18.50.

The survey also identified the main obstacles to growth over the next six months: governance (42%), internal economic conditions (26%), external conditions (22%), public insecurity (19%), foreign‑trade policy (12%), lack of structural reforms (9%), rule‑of‑law issues (9%) and weak domestic demand (8%).