Mexico's public debt outpaces economic growth, hitting about 50% of GDP

Mexico's public debt has been rising far faster than the country's economy. From October 2024 to the end of the first quarter of 2026, the broadest measure of debt grew 12.4% in nominal terms while GDP advanced only 4.6%, meaning debt expanded 168.9% faster than economic activity. The debt‑to‑GDP ratio increased from 48.8% at the close of Q3 2024 to 52.9% by March 2026, and April 2026 data show total public debt at roughly 18.68 trillion pesos – about half of GDP.

The Treasury stresses that the debt remains “under control and aligned with the country's payment capacity,” noting a primary budget surplus of 171 billion pesos in April. However, projections released by the finance ministry indicate debt could reach 54.7% of GDP in 2027, the highest level in a decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

The situation reflects broader pressures on Mexico's public finances, including modest economic growth and rising fiscal obligations, while the government argues that debt sustainability should be assessed in relation to overall economic size, composition, financing costs, and maturity profiles.