Mexico’s Trade Outlook Faces USMCA Revamp and Growing Ties with China

Mexico recorded a record $255.3 billion in exports in the first four months of 2026, reinforcing its role as the United States’ top trading partner. Business leader Salomón Issa Tafich warned that the forthcoming revision of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement will shift the focus from speed of shipment to sophisticated data governance, requiring exporters to prove the origin of every component in real time. He said border customs will become high‑tech filters, and firms that fail to adopt such digital traceability risk costly bottlenecks.

At the same time, China has become Mexico’s second‑largest trading partner, trailing only the United States. Despite new Mexican tariffs of up to 50 % on Chinese goods and no bilateral trade agreement, Chinese imports—particularly electronics, machinery and semiconductor‑related items—have risen double‑digit, accounting for about 58 % of Mexico’s purchases from China. The trade deficit with China has stabilized around $123 billion. The surge is linked to increasing demand for AI‑related components within global supply chains.