Turkish poll shows AKP leads only with Kılıçdaroğlu at CHP helm, Erdoğan approval slips

A June 2026 public opinion survey examined how party leaders influence voter preferences in Turkey. The Yöneylem study found that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) would rank first only in the scenario where Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remains the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP); in other leadership configurations the AKP falls to second place.

MetroPoll’s nationwide poll reported that 44.5 % of respondents approve President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s performance while 51 % disapprove. Among supporters of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), 40 % do not approve of Erdoğan. By contrast, opposition leader Özgür Özel received a 50.7 % approval rating, with 43.1 % disapproving.

The Gündem Araştırma poll highlighted a shift in voter behavior, quoting its director: “Mesaj açık: Seçmen artık yalnızca partiye değil, liderliğe ve iktidar iddiasına bakıyor.” The data also suggested that a new party led by Özel could capture up to 34.9 % of the vote if undecided and protest votes are allocated, while the AKP’s share would rise to around 31 % under the same conditions. These findings underscore the growing importance of individual leaders over party brands ahead of the next election cycle.