Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf links U.S. inflation to energy chokepoints

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated that U.S. inflationary expectations are increasingly tied to supply-side shocks caused by potential disruptions in key energy chokepoints, specifically the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Writing on social media, Ghalibaf argued that the Federal Reserve's traditional tool of adjusting interest rates is insufficient to manage inflation driven by energy supply constraints. He questioned whether raising interest rates could open the Strait of Hormuz or increase oil production, suggesting that geopolitical variables now play a more decisive role in economic indicators than traditional monetary policy.

Ghalibaf emphasized that the “risk of the Strait of Hormuz” is a distinct factor from standard economic variables and asserted that inflation expectations in the United States will remain difficult to anchor until these geopolitical risks are addressed.