Monarch PMS issues three silver price scenarios for 2026

Monarch PMS has released three distinct price scenarios for silver through the end of 2026, based on variables such as Federal Reserve policy, energy prices, and physical silver supply.

The most likely scenario, with a 55% probability, predicts silver will reach a range of $70-$85 per ounce. This outcome assumes the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates through September, energy prices stabilize, and real returns remain steady. Under this same scenario, gold is projected to reach $4,300-$4,700.

A second, more bullish scenario carries a 25% probability. If the U.S. labor market weakens and the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative monetary policy, silver could climb to between $95 and $120 per ounce. This path would also see gold potentially reaching $5,000-$5,600.

Conversely, there is a 20% probability of a bearish scenario. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in September, causing real returns to pressure precious metals, silver prices could face a sharp decline.