Monarch PMS silver price projections

Monarch PMS has provided several projections for silver prices through the end of 2026, driven by physical market fundamentals and macroeconomic variables. The firm notes that silver may become more affordable than gold due to a high gold-silver ratio and a projected sixth consecutive annual silver deficit. Since 2021, approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from above-ground stocks while mine supply has remained largely stagnant.

Monarch PMS outlined three specific price scenarios for silver based on Federal Reserve policy and energy prices:

- A base case (55% probability) predicts silver will reach $70-$85 per ounce, with gold trading between $4,300 and $4,700. - A bullish scenario (25% probability) suggests silver could climb to $95-$120 per ounce if the U.S. labor market weakens and the Federal Reserve adopts more accommodative monetary policy. - A bearish scenario (20% probability) anticipates a sharp decline in silver prices if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in September.

Additional volatility factors include the fact that paper claims on COMEX are roughly 5.6 times the registered physical inventory.