Montana winter forecasts diverge amid El Niño strength

Forecasts for the 2026-27 winter season in Montana show conflicting predictions regarding the impact of a strengthening El Niño.

NOAA predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the northern Rockies, accompanied by below-normal precipitation in certain areas. In contrast, the Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts a warmer and wetter winter for the Intermountain region, which includes western Montana, suggesting above-normal snowfall.

Despite these divergent outlooks, Big Sky Resort reports that its historical data shows relative stability. According to the resort's ski patrol records dating back 34 seasons to 1991, full-season snowfall totals have varied by only approximately 16% annually.