Moody's revises Bayan Resources outlook to negative

Moody's Ratings has revised the outlook for PT Bayan Resources Tbk from stable to negative, while maintaining its corporate family rating (CFR) at Ba1. The downgrade in outlook is driven by regulatory uncertainty regarding coal production quota allocations in Indonesia.

This regulatory delay led Bayan Resources to declare force majeure on its coal supply obligations on September 14, 2026. Without approval for a revised production quota, Moody's estimates the company's 2026 production could drop to approximately 39 million metric tons (MT), a significant decrease from the estimated 68 million MT in 2025.

Despite the negative outlook, Moody's noted that Bayan's credit metrics remain strong, supported by a debt-free balance sheet. However, the ongoing uncertainty regarding annual quota approvals poses a downside risk to the company's ability to achieve production growth, meet delivery commitments, and reach its long-term full capacity goal of approximately 80 million MT.